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Welcome to the Football Forecastor, home to Jim "Dirtydog"
Campbell, who is considered one of the nations most prolific sports
handicappers, we specialize in NFL and College Football handicapping
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 Football
Forecastor
How to bet the NFL
preseason
By Jim Campbell of www.footballforecastor.com
It
never ceases to amaze me just how many sports bettors pass when it
comes to wagering on NFL preseason games, the reason probably has
more to do with past preseason wagering losses than anything else,
in the big picture most simply do not understand that you cannot
handicap the NFL preseason using the same methods that you use when
handicapping NFL regular season games.
You
must approach NFL preseason handicapping from a totally different
perspective and actually pretend that you are the head coach of the
team that you are handicapping, as a head coach in preseason action
you must have pre-defined goals of what you want to accomplish
during the preseason.
Above
all you must never forget that the NFL preseason is actually
practice and “Tune up” time for each team to work on their
weaknesses from the previous season and of course to take a look at
each player on their roster and especially the players that are
fighting for starting and backup positions, remember that as a HC
you must also whittle down the roster as you go.
I
mentioned above that as a HC you really want to use the preseason to
practice and perfect any and all changes you made during the
offseason in order to fix whatever weaknesses your team had, a
simple way to do this is by taking a look at how your team ranked
offensively and defensively from the previous regular season.
For
example, at the conclusion of the 2008 regular season the final
statistics showed Cincinnati, Detroit, Indianapolis, and Arizona
ranked 29th, 30th, 31st, and 32nd respectively in offensive rushing
yards, to correct this problem the Bengals drafted a huge offensive
left tackle (Andre Smith) with the NFL’s sixth overall pick and
signed two free agent running backs, the Lions cleaned house after a
0-16 season by bringing in a new GM and a new coaching staff along
with ten draft picks and fourteen free agents, the Colts drafted RB
Donald Brown with their first overall pick, and finally Arizona who
lost to Pittsburgh in the Super Bowl also drafted a RB with their
first overall pick (Chris “Beanie” Wells).
So,
now that we know that these four teams finished in the bottom four
slots with regard to total rushing yardage in 2008, and we also know
that each team has taken steps to correct this weakness for the
upcoming 2009 season, doesn’t it make sense that these four teams
will in all likelihood want to practice their running game during
the preseason?
The
Niners allowed 54 sacks last year while the Lions allowed the next
highest amount of sacks with a total of 51, followed closely by the
Bengals with 50 sacks allowed, this of course means that we can
probably expect to see a lot of personnel shifting and
experimentation along the offensive line for these three teams
during the preseason.
Detroit,
St Louis, Jacksonville, and Cleveland statistically ranked 32nd,
31st, 30th, and 29th in defensive yardage per pass allowed in 2008,
meaning that their deep pass defense was terrible last year, thus I
would look for a lot of new schemes and new players to be utilized
in the defensive secondary of these four teams during the 2009 NFL
preseason.
Cleveland,
Kansas City, Oakland, and Detroit finished 2008 ranked 29th, 30th,
31st, and 32nd respectively in defensive rushing yards allowed, each
of these four teams allowed a whopping 150 yards or more on average
to their opponents per game last year, thus you would expect to see
these four teams use different people or different combinations of
people along their defensive line during the preseason and/or use
different blocking schemes or a different style of defense.
On
the flip side however, keep in mind that the opposite is just as
true with regard to the teams that finished at the top of each
offensive and defensive category, these teams will probably be using
the same starters from last season and thus will give the backups
more playing and practice time during the preseason.
Another
key strategy I like to use in preseason action is to know what the
QB rotation will be for each team in any given contest, usually this
information can be found in the local newspaper of whatever city
that team plays in at least a couple of days prior to the preseason
game taking place.
If
a team has a strong starting QB but a so-so backup QB and rookie
third and fourth stringers and they are playing a team that also has
a strong QB along with a pretty good backup, a decent third string
journeyman and possibly a rookie fourth stringer you can bet that I
am going to back the team with the better QB rotation and especially
if there are a few other reasons to back this team as well.
If
you can pin point a team that has a QB “controversy” going on,
meaning a team that has two QB’s vying for the starting job, this
can lead to many winning opportunities because of the fact that the
HC will want to be viewed as being fair by giving each QB equal
playing time with the starting offensive line and starting RB’s
and WR’s which of course means that this teams’ offensive
starters will be on the field longer than the other teams defensive
starters.
Once
you have grown accustomed to analyzing each team in any given
preseason match up from the stand point of what each HC wants to
accomplish as I have outlined above you will invariably start to
notice many winning situations either by wagering on the side or the
total in that affair.
In
closing, always remember that betting the NFL preseason requires you
to recognize a team's needs and also requires an understanding of
what a particular HC wants to accomplish before Week One of the
regular season rolls around.
Keep
in mind that HC’s want to look at the “Fresh Blood”, meaning
that teams ranked high in defensive categories from the previous
regular season can be involved in very high scoring preseason games,
and consequently teams known for high scoring contests can be
involved in defensive showdowns because in each instance new players
are being looked at.
Remember
that passing teams can suddenly become running teams and running
teams can suddenly become passing teams, during the NFL preseason
teams tend to take a departure from their normal game plans in order
to experiment which is why so many bettors lose money trying to
handicap the NFL preseason as if it was a regular season contest and
thus are convinced there is simply no way to handicap the preseason,
but we know better don’t we?
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Jim
Campbell is one of the nations’ most respected Sports
Handicappers, he specializes in College and Pro Football, you
can visit Jim at his website located at footballforecastor.com
for all of your handicapping needs including free play
selections, College and NFL stats, trends and award winning
analysis on upcoming games.
With
over 30 plus years experience in the handicapping profession
Jim has built a solid reputation, his web based handicapping
service at footballforecastor.com
as been in existence since 1997 and year after year proves to
be one of the very best handicapping services in America.
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