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Welcome to the Football Forecastor, home to Jim "Dirtydog"
Campbell, who is considered one of the nations most prolific sports
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Hello my friend...
Another NFL season
concludes and enters the ole history book when the winner is
determined in Super Bowl XLIV on Sunday Feb. 7, 2010 from Sun Life
Stadium in Miami Florida which is home to the Miami Dolphins and is
the very same stadium that over the years and since its final
construction in 1987 we have known by many names, names such as Joe
Robbi Stadium, Pro Player Park, Pro Player Stadium, Dolphins
Stadium, Dolphin Stadium and Land Shark Stadium.
For those into
Super Bowl trivia as well as for those into the whole destiny thing,
you might like to know that as an odd coincidence Indianapolis Colt
QB Peyton Manning will be leading his team into battle on the very
same field which produced his first Lombardi Trophy as well as a
Super Bowl MVP award back on Feb. 4th 2007 when the Colts
defeated Chicago by the final score of 29-17 as a 6.5 point
favorite, the only difference is that the stadium was known as
Dolphin Stadium at that point in time.
The NFL likes to
schedule the Super Bowl to be played in warm weather cities so that
the site itself is fan friendly, with that being said this will be
the 15th Super Bowl played in the state of Florida and the 10th time
overall that the Super game will be held in the city of Miami. As a
side note, in the 14 prior Super Bowls played in Florida, the
favorite has won 10 of the 14 games in straight up fashion but only
posted a mark of 5-8-1 ATS in those games.
The Indianapolis
Colts and the New Orleans Saints will represent the AFC and NFC
respectively in this years’ season finale which will be the Colts
fourth overall trip to the big game but only their second
since moving to Indianapolis in 1984 from Baltimore, meanwhile, this
will be the first ever Super Bowl trip for the Saints who were
founded in 1967, with the Saints in this years Super Bowl we are now
left with only four teams that have never made it to the big game
(Browns, Jaguars, Lions, and Texans).
Super Bowl Sunday
continues to get bigger and bigger with regard to the amount of
money wagered on the event and this year will be no different as an
estimated $100 million will be legally wagered in Las Vegas and
probably 1 to 1.5 times that amount at offshore outlets, amazingly
enough, those totals do not include the bar/club pools in which you
buy a square for anywhere from $5 to $200 or the office pools and
certainly does not include the amount taken in by your friendly
neighborhood bookie.
Some gamblers enter
the final game on the plus side of the ledger while others enter the
contest on the negative side of things, in either circumstance its
never a smart move to wager more on the Super Bowl than you did on
any normal game during the regular season and its definitely not a
smart move to try to recoup past losses on a single game no matter
how confident you feel in what the outcome will be, with that in
mind its always a wise decision to keep your wagers on the Super
Bowl relatively small.
Like any regular
season NFL game, it’s generally a good idea to know any and all
past Super Bowl trends and history before actually breaking down the
match up itself, with that in mind this is the 44th Championship
Game and we've got some solid information to dissect, for example,
did you know that the NFC holds a slim 22-21 straight up edge over
the AFC or that the NFC has posted an overall mark of 23-17-3 ATS to
date in the big game?
However, in the
last thirteen Super Bowls the AFC’s representative has posted a
mark of 9-4 straight up and 6-5-2 ATS, the largest margin of victory
for the NFC was a 45 point win by
San Francisco
over
Denver
(55-10) as a 12 point favorite following the 1989 regular season
while the largest margin of victory by the AFC was a 27 point win in
Super Bowl XXXV when Baltimore
crushed the Giants by a final of 34-7 as a three point favorite. As
a side note, an eye opening 17 of the NFC’s 22 Super Bowl wins
have been by double digit point margins.
Some think that one
of the “safest” ways to bet on the Super Bowl is to make a
“money-line” wager, in that regard a check of the ole history
book reveals that the installed favorite has posted a mark of 30-13
straight up and 21-19-3 ATS, as you can see the installed favorite
has won the contest straight up 69.77% of the time. However, as a
side note and for future reference you might want to keep this in
mind, the higher seeded team in the past 14 Super Bowls has posted a
mark of 1-11-2 ATS!
Anything can happen
in this years’ Super Bowl, who knows, maybe the Saints will find a
way to defeat Indianapolis straight up, however, oddly enough there
have been only nine games in Super Bowl history in which the
favorite won the game in straight up fashion but failed to cash the
ticket. The overall record of the straight up winning favorites is a
phenomenal mark of 21-6-3 ATS.
It’s a safe
assumption to make that Super Bowl winning teams in all likelihood
also won the “Stat Wars” in those games as well,
in that regard a little research revealed some really startling
facts. For example, would you believe that the team that rushes for
more yards owns a mark of 36-7 straight up and 31-9-3 ATS or for
that matter that the team that averages more passing yards per
attempt has posted an amazing mark of 37-6 straight up and 33-7-3
ATS?
Turnovers play a
huge part in any game, however, turnovers are magnified that much
more in the big game as history reveals that the team that wins the
turnover battle have won 39 of the past 43 Super Bowls in straight
up fashion (4 turnover ties) and posted an amazing mark of 34-5 ATS
in those games, meanwhile, the Super Bowl participant that wins the
TOP (time of possession) battle has a remarkable record of 32-11
straight up and 29-11-3 ATS.
Here’s an eyebrow
raiser for you, teams that win at least three of the above stat
categories have posted a record of 37-1 straight up and 31-6-1 ATS,
meanwhile, teams that managed to win all four of the listed stat
categories have posted a lofty mark of 24-0 straight up and 22-1-1
ATS!
Just some food for
thought as we head into Super Sunday, stay tuned for my Super Bowl
Selections as well as my prop plays for this year later this week
once we have a clearer picture with regard to the injury status of
some key players from both teams as well as a better idea of what
kind of weather to expect for the Super Game. Over the past eleven
years I have been fortunate enough to have collected on 8 of 11
Super Bowl Selections ATS for a winning rate of 72.73%, hopefully I
will be able to add to that tally this year!
Take care and be
well my friend
Jim
2010 SUPER
BOWL
NEW
ORLEANS +5 over Indianapolis
Sunday February 7th 6:25 pm EST
5*****BEST BET..................................................................................WINNER
New Orleans--Indianapolis……UNDER 57
.....................................WINNER
2**Play Selection
NEW ORLEANS +185
“MONEY-LNE” over Indianapolis.............WINNER
The point spread on this contest opened with the Colts installed as
3.5 point favorites after the conclusion of the AFC and NFC
Championship Games and within a few hours time had shot up to Colts
-5.5 with a few -6’s available for a limited time, however, once
the injury to Colt DE Dwight Freeney was revealed a frantic buy-back
took place which dropped the point spread back down to Colts -4 to
-4.5 depending on where you looked.
The current most widely available line is Colts -5 (without having
to pay additional juice), the O/U total on this contest opened at 56
then quickly moved to 56.5 and most books have now moved the O/U up
to a solid 57, which is exactly what I was hoping for as 57 is a “key
number” and in the big picture I would much rather play on
or off a key number when it comes to a O/U total.
Sharps and public money combined to move the initial line upwards
after watching how dominate the Colts appeared in their win over the
Jets while the Saints seemingly struggled against the Vikings even
tho’ they were the beneficiaries of five Minnesota T/O’s.
I backed both of these teams in their respective AFC and NFC
Championship games, the Colts easily covered with a final score of
30-17 as an -8 point favorite over the Jets, meanwhile, the Saints
failed me as a -3.5 point favorite in their three point win over
Minnesota. However, you won’t hear “Cry me a river” coming
from my stereo speakers as we cashed a nice 3**Play Selection
winner the previous week when the Saints trounced Arizona
45-14 and also cashed a 5*****BEST BET winning ticket
when the Vikings slaughtered the visiting Cowpokes 34-3.
Which of these two teams’ playoff wins have been more impressive?
The Colts made it look rather easy in defeating Baltimore by 17
points (20-3) as a 6.5 point favorite and then knocked off the
upstart New York Jets 30-17 as an 8 point favorite, meanwhile, New
Orleans slapped Arizona silly in a much easier than expected 45-14
thrashing but had a tougher time getting by the Vikings 31-28 and
needed OT to do.
In my humble opinion I believe the Colts had a much easier path to
the Super Bowl, mainly because they faced two lesser caliber QB’s
in second year Raven triggerman Joe Flacco and then got to face Jet
rookie QB Mark Sanchez in the AFC Championship game.
As I had mentioned in my original analysis and selection in the
Raven/Colt game, Baltimore was at a severe disadvantage entering the
game against Indianapolis as they were playing on the road for the 4th
straight week with a trip to the left coast mixed in, in the end the
Ravens were only out yarded by the Colts by a mere 5 total yards but
was their own worse enemy with regard to turning the ball over a
total of four times.
The Colts also lucked out with regard to getting to face ANOTHER
very tired and “road weary” team in the AFC Championship game as
well when the Jets came to town, in my original analysis of that
game I pointed out that Gang Green was playing their 3rd
straight road game with a trip to the left coast mixed in and
overall was playing on the road AGAIN for the 6th
time in an 8 week span.
The Jets only turned the ball over once and played a great first
half, however, tired “road weary” legs did them in during the
second half. Add it up as you like but the truth of the matter is
that the Colts two playoff wins came against two relatively inferior
QB’s that were leading their tired and road weary teams, how road
weary you ask? A check of the Ravens and Jets schedule and result
sheet reveals that these two teams had combined to play on the road
in 11 of their previous 15 games prior to taking on Manning and
company.
New Orleans had a MUCH tougher row to hoe in
getting to the Super Bowl as they faced an Arizona Card team that
was last years’ Super Bowl runner-up that was being lead into
battle by future HOF (hall of fame) QB Kurt Warner, how did the
Saints fare? They forced three Arizona fumbles (only recovered one),
picked off Cardinal Kurt Warner once en-route to holding Warner to a
QB rating of 73.0, won the TOP (time of possession) battle by a
staggering 36:27 to 23:33 margin and in the end clubbed the
Cardinals 45-14.
In the NFC Championship Game, the Saints hosted a well rested Viking
team that like the Saints, had a bye week prior to playing their
opening playoff game against the Dallas Cowboys. The horned ones
beat the Cowpokes easily 34-3 in a game that saw the Viking defense
force three T/O’s while committing zero turnovers themselves
against the vaulted Dallas defense.
How did the Saints fare against the Vikings? They lost the yardage
battle 475 to 257, were out-rushed by a staggering 165 to 68
difference, and lost the TOP battle 36:49 to 27:56…yet the Saints
won the game by a final of 31-28 in OT. How did they do it? They did
it by forcing five Minnesota T/O’s including two INT’s off
Viking QB Brett Favre and in the end held Favre to a QB rating of
70.0.
Needless to say, the Saints played a piss poor game offensively
against the Vikings yet still found a way to win. What needs to be
pointed out is the fact that New Orleans faced a Viking defense that
was ranked #1 against the run and was ranked #4 in the league in
terms of total yards allowed, the Saints were never able to get
their running game going which in the end short circuited their
play-action passing game.
The Colts DO NOT have the same defensive
capability that Minnesota had to duplicate this feat as evidenced by
the fact that Indianapolis ranked 21st in the league
against the run and a less then middle of the road 18th
in terms of total yards allowed. In truth the Colts have been a very
lucky team up to this point in time with regard to winning seven
games during the regular season by 4 or less points, what should be
quite discerning to Colt backers is the fact of WHO those close wins
came against (Jags X2, Miami, SF, Houston, NE, and
Baltimore)….five non-playoff teams.
Which team has the potential of blowing out the other team in this
contest? If we were to use a 20 point margin of victory as a
“blowout”, a check of the Colts schedule and result sheet shows
they had three blowout wins (Arizona, Tennessee, and St Louis),
meanwhile, the Saints had FIVE blowout wins over the likes of
Philadelphia, Giants, Tampa Bay, New England, and Arizona. Take note
that the only team that the Colts blew out that had a decent QB was
Arizona, on the flip side the Saints blew out FOUR teams that were
being Quarterbacked by who most pundits consider at being at or near
elite status (McNabb, Eli Manning, Tom Brady, and Kurt Warner).
Both teams “laid down” and rested starters in their final two
regular season games and both teams had a bye week prior to playing
their opening round playoff game, with a week in between the
Championship games and the Super Bowl both teams are sitting again,
add it up how you want but my math shows that these two teams have
essentially been sitting on their collective butts for four of the
past six weeks.
Both offenses are receiving mega hype and rightly so as the New
Orleans offense finished the regular season ranked #1 in most
categories including total yards per game while the Manning led
Colts finished 9th in that same category. Both teams rely
on precision timing routes in their passing games and in that regard
I can’t shake the thought that BOTH teams will come out tentative
and out of sync in the first half of action which in the end will
equate to a lower than expected scoring total.
The Colts have been getting all of the media hype and especially
their QB Peyton Manning, however, in truth Saint QB Drew Brees had a
better season and SHOULD have garnered the league MVP honors and not
Peyton Manning who got the reward on name recognition. It only makes
sense that the Saints must be perceived as the team more likely to
enter this contest with the jitters as it is their first ever
appearance on the big stage known as the Super Bowl, head coaches
are always preaching “Do not say anything stupid, we don’t want
the other team to have bulletin board material”.
Why do coaches preach this? Because it can be a motivational tool
for your opponent that’s why, in the end bulletin board material
means next to nothing but what it does do in the big picture is to
serve as a “focusing” tool as the team that might have had the
jitters now has focus, the bigger the game the more focus needed.
I bring the above up because former Colt HC Tony Dungy made
statements on national TV that he really shouldn’t have made
because now the Saints will replace their “jitters” with focus,
here are the quotes:
__________________________________________________________________________________
Dungy, speaking to The New York Times in Miami, said the Saints
won't be able to do enough to force the Colts into needing a final,
last-minute drive to win the Super Bowl.
"I think they're going to be so far ahead that people are
going to say, 'Oh, ho-hum, he played a good game, they won by two
scores, the Colts won their second championship,' " Dungy said
of Manning on Thursday. "He's going to have those rings Sunday
night. I don't think it's going to be close."
__________________________________________________________________________________
Prop plays are pretty much sucker plays so be careful which ones you
play, if you do in fact play any props try to pick the props which
best fall in line with how you see the game itself unfolding. Below
are the two prop plays that I like best and will be playing myself:
SUPER BOWL MVP….Drew
Brees +300 for ½ unit…The reasoning is simple, if
the Saints win the Super Bowl in straight up fashion as I believe
they will, then most likely it will be because of the play of QB
Drew Brees, in historical terms QB’s have won the MVP award two of
the past three seasons and have won the award in 10 of the past 20
Super Bowls......WINNER
REGGIE BUSH TOTAL RECEIVING YARDS…OVER
29 -126 for ½ unit…The reasoning here is quite
simple as well, it only figures that the Colts will want to blanket
the New Orleans receivers coming off the line, the Saints will
anticipate this and use those same WR’s as decoys streaking down
the field of play and in turn will use Reggie Bush coming out of the
backfield on screens and middle of the field slant passes, all we
need is for Bush to bust one long pass play and he could easily go
over 29 total yards......WINNER
Take care, have fun and be well my friends!!
Jim
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