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Campbell, who is considered one of the nations most prolific sports
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Football
Forecastor
2010 AFC and NFC
Championship Game analysis
By Jim Campbell
INDIANAPOLIS
-8 over Jets................WINNER
Sunday January 24th 3:00 pm EST
3***Play Selection
One of two things will happen in this contest,
either Indianapolis wins and covers along with the game going OVER
the posted total or the New York Jets pull the upset and the game
dips under the posted total, thus the question, if I think the Colts
will win and cover then why not simply place a parlay wager on the
Colts and OVER?
The answer is two-fold with the first part
being Jet QB Mark Sanchez as I don’t trust him plain and simple to
get the job done and/or put up a good fight if and when the Colts
start pulling away and secondly I don’t trust the Colts to pour it
on once they get the lead on the scoreboard as they have a nasty
habit of playing down to their competition and especially when
playing at home where the Colts AMV (average margin of victory) is
only 5.78, however, overall the Colts are the NFL’s 5th
ranked team in terms of AMV with an average point differential of
7.41 points and as a side note the top 10 teams in this category all
made the playoffs this year and three of the top five teams still
remain (#1 New Orleans, #2 Minnesota, # 5 Indy).
Joe Public bettors are letting themselves
become wayyyyy too infatuated with the New York Jets and more
specifically the Jet defense as a simple review
of the Jets schedule and their result sheet reveals something quite
interesting and that is the fact that teams that scored 24 or more
points against the Jets posted a perfect mark of 5-0 straight up and
ATS (New Orleans, Miami X2, Jags, and New England) and 4 of those 5
contests went OVER the posted total.
Let’s keep things in
perspective here my friends, this is the AFC Championship game and
it is being held in the Colts home dome, in the playoffs EVERYTHING
becomes much more magnified with regard to not only the game day
setting and festivities but also the media coverage surrounding and
leading up to the contest itself. Both teams will feel the pressure
and have the game day jitters, sometimes all it takes is one bad
play or one miscue and the ole pendulum swings and never returns as
momentum is a vastly under rated commodity, this is best evidenced
by the fact that since 1970 a full 59 out of 78 AFC and NFC
Championship games have been decided by 7 or more points (75.64%)
and a full 48 of the 78 Championship games over that span were
decided by 11 or more points (61.54%).
Joe Public usually backs
favorites but that has not been the case in this contest as recent
statistics show that 54% of all tickets written thus far have been
on the Jets, yet the opening point spread of Colts -7 has now edged
upward to Colts -8 which is usually a pretty good indicator that
respected money from certain sharps has shown up on the Colts, with
that being said I would still expect to see late money come in on
the Colts from the public in the form of teaser action which will
probably drive the number up a little more and I would really not be
the least bit surprised to see the line settle in at Colts -9 by
kick off as a means of protecting against the aforementioned teaser
action with regard to a 6 point tease on Indianapolis now landing on
3 versus 2 or 2.5. In the big picture there is not really all that
much difference in laying a point spread of -7.5 versus -8.5 or to a
certain extent even 9 for that matter when it comes to wagering on
side action.
This game basically boils down to
a question of who do you trust more, the well rested and more
playoff experienced Colts playing at home with Peyton Manning under
center or the Jets who have a rookie QB under center and are playing
on the road again for the third straight week and are also on the
road again for the sixth time in an eight week span?
Keep this in mind, never in the
long history of the NFL has a rookie QB ever made it to the Super
Bowl and as a matter of fact there has only ever been three 2nd
year QB’s to make it to the big game, Dan Marino, Ben
Roethlisberger, and Tom Brady, thusly, you have to ask yourself…is
Jet QB Mark Sanchez all THAT special that he should be expected do
something that has never been done before?
The two most recent examples of
rookie QB’s playing in Championship games are quite poignant in
nature, last year it was rookie QB Joe Flacco of Baltimore who made
it to the AFC Championship game against Pittsburgh and imploded with
a 13 of 30 passing day for a mere 141 yards and was picked off three
times as the Ravens lost 23-14 and in 2004 rookie Pittsburgh QB Ben
Roethlisberger got to play in a home AFC Championship game against
New England and like Flacco was also picked off three times as
Pittsburgh went down in defeat 41-27.
Media talking heads have been
pounding it home to the public that these Jets own the league’s #1
ranked defense and Jet playoff wins over Cincinnati (24-14) and San
Diego (17-14) only served to further drive that point home, however,
in truth the Jets build up most of those defensive statistics over
the second half of the season against teams with losing records and
will be exposed in this affair as the Jets will be playing on tired
“road weary” legs and will be facing NFL’s second best passing
attack which is averaging 282 yards per outing thru the air and 363
yards per game overall. In a duel between Peyton Manning and Mark
Sanchez I’ll gladly take Manning and let the chips fall where they
may.
Those that like trends might like
to know that the straight up winner in Jet games this year is an eye
opening 18-0 ATS, meanwhile, the straight up winner is a perfect 8-0
ATS in the Colts last eight games, needless to say that adds up to a
perfect 26-0 ATS trend! Here’s another trend, opposing FG kickers
have now missed five straight FG attempts against the Jets, four of
which were chip shot misses, if those kicks were good we might just
be talking about the Colts versus an entirely different team here,
can the Jets luck hold out? Nope, nothing lasts forever.
NEW
ORLEANS -3.5 over Minnesota........Loser
Sunday January 24th 6:40 pm EST
3***Play Selection
These New Orleans Saints bought home a
3**Play
Selection winner for me last week when they trounced the
Cardinals 45-14 and the Vikings were a 5*****BEST BET winner
for me as well when they slaughtered the visiting Cowpokes 34-3,
thus the question, was it hard to pick the winner in this contest
which pits them against one another? The answer is nope.
Midway thru the regular season my math model
predicted a Saints/Colts Super Bowl matchup and it looks like that
prediction will come to fruition (as long as Indianapolis takes care
of business in the days’ first game!). Oddly enough there are five
teams in NFL history that have never played in a Super Bowl and
these Saints are one of those teams (Detroit, Houston, Cleveland,
Jacksonville, New Orleans), as a side note the Vikings have been to
four Super Bowls and have come out on the losing end each time.
If line movement is used as an
indicator then Joe Public likes the Vikings in this contest as the
initial point spread opened with the Saints installed as 4 to 4.5
point favorites depending on where you looked and has since fell to
its current level of Saints -3.5. I would not wait and would
recommend grabbing the -3.5 now as I fully expect the sharps to come
back over the top and bet New Orleans once it becomes quite obvious
that the line will not dip down to a solid -3 as they are hoping.
Public bettors are somewhat like
little kids, while most children still believe in the tooth fairy
and Santa Claus, Joe Public still believes in aged Brett Favre. The
media has been conducive in building up his image with constant
video clips of him tossing a TD here or there and touting him as one
of the best QB’s to ever play the game when in fact the truth of
the matter is that Brett Favre doesn’t even rank in the top 10 all
time when it comes to the most meaningful statistics for QB’s,
it’s true that Favre is at or near the top in a lot of all time QB
categories but that is really a testament of his time in the league
which started in 1991 when he was drafted by Atlanta.
Minnesota with Favre under center
has had a pretty good year in that they finished the regular season
with a mark of 12-4, however, it really should not be over-looked
that all four losses took place on the road (at Pittsburgh 17-27, at
Arizona 17-30, at Carolina 7-26, and at Chicago 30-36) and in those
four road losses the supposed great Viking defense gave up an
average of 29.75 points while the Viking offense with Favre only
managed to score an average of 17.75 points, when you do the math it
adds up to an average road loss by 12 points.
The Vikings are one of the
NFL’s “Jekyll and Hyde” teams with regard to how they play at
home versus how they play on the road, a glance at the AMV (average
margin of victory) rankings show that these Vikings have an overall
AMV of 11.12 which is only second to New Orleans (11.76), however,
the home versus away disparity is immense at Minny’s home AMV is
18.78 while their road AMV is a meager 2.50 which is quite odd for a
team that finished the regular season with a mark of 12-4.
In stark contrast the New Orleans
Saints have been quite consistent this year when it comes to scoring
as their overall AMV is a league leading 11.76 and there really
isn’t much difference (1.68 points) in their home (12.56) and away
(10.88). The Saint offense has been stellar all season long as they
tallied a league leading 510 points during the regular season which
was the 9th most points scored in NFL history and was
also the NFL’s top ranked team in average yards per game (403.8),
and it doesn’t stop there as the Saints also own the league’s 6th
best rushing attack.
Can Minnesota hold this New
Orleans Saints scoring machine in check? I don’t think so as the
dirty little secret is that the Vikings own the NFL’s 26th
ranked pass defense when it comes to opposing QB completion
percentage (63.7%) and they are also ranked 26th in the
league with only 12 interceptions all season long. Look for Saint QB
Drew Brees to have a field day against this Viking defensive
secondary.
How will the Saints defense fare
against the Viking offense? For starters the Saint defense for the
season allowed an average of 357.8 yards total per outing on average
but only allowed 5.84 points per 100 yards allowed which ranked them
7th in the NFL in this category and for the season the
Saint defense allowed an average of 20.88 points per game, as a side
note it really should be noted that the Saint defense was hampered
with injuries and especially in their defensive secondary during the
second half of the season, however, they are now healthy.
Those that like trends might like
to know that New Orleans has covered 10 of the last 13 times ATS
when installed as a favorite of 4 or less points, meanwhile, the
visiting Vikings are a rather sorry 3-10 straight up and 3-9-1 ATS
in their last 13 outings when installed as a doggie of 4 or less
points.
Look for the Saints to take
control of this contest at home in the loud Super Dome almost from
the word go, the Vikings will probably keep it close for a time but
that will change once Viking QB Brett Favre tries to jump into the
role of the hero by taking chances he shouldn’t with regard to
attempting to force the ball into tight windows and in the end throw
a couple of costly picks.
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