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Welcome to the Football Forecastor, home to Jim "Dirtydog"
Campbell, who is considered one of the nations most prolific sports
handicappers, we specialize in NFL and College Football handicapping
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2009 AFC & NFC Championship plays:
ARIZONA
+4 over Philly
Sunday 01/18/09 3:00 pm est
3***Play Selection
The line on this contest opened up with the home town Arizona
Cardinals installed as 3 point home doggies (with plus juice) but
has since moved to Arizona +4, meanwhile, the O/U total opened at
49.5 but was almost immediately bet downward to 48 and is now
sitting at 47 at most shops.
I backed these Cardinals with a 3***Play Selection
rating in their contest at Carolina last week and will back them
once again this week against a road weary Eagle team that is fresh
off a huge emotional win over their hated divisional rival New York
Giants.
I say "Road Weary" because in this contest
the Eagles will be playing their 3rd straight road game, will be on
the road AGAIN for the 4th time in 5 weeks, and will be on the road AGAIN
for the 5th time in a 7 week span...can you say "Road
Weary"?
Its true that the Philadelphia Eagles did not have far to travel
last week in their short little 93 mile jaunt to the Meadowlands
which cultimated in a nice 23-11 win and cover for the Eagles as 4
point road doggies...
However, in the big picture these Eagles expended ALOT
of emotional energy in last weeks contest against the hated G-Men
and if the truth be known the Eagles will be playing in what amounts
to their 8th straight must win game this week and are doing so once
again on the road...
...talking about being on the road again, the public perception of
these Eagles is that they are a "Bad mama jamma"
when taking their show on the road and the win over the Giants last
win has only enhanced the public's perception of that...
...however, a simple review of Philadelphia's most current results
when taking to the road shows that even after last week’s win over
the G-Men at the Meadowlands, these Eagles are only 5-4-1 SU and 6-4
ATS in their last 10 roadies and that includes the very embarrassing
3-10 loss at rival Washington, the mind boggling 13-13 tie at
Cincinnati and a 7-36 blow out at Baltimore.
This contest is a rematch of a contest that took place in
Philadelphia back on 11/27/08 which was won by the Eagles 20-48 as a
3 point home favorite, if we were to disregard the final result of
that earlier contest between these two teams a simple home field
role reversal would have this line at Arizona -3...
...even if you were to subtract out the results of the first meeting
between these two teams the point spread should still have the
Cardinals listed as a short home favorite, at worst this game should
be a "Pick-em" and in that regard we are getting +4 points
of sheer value from the word go in my humble opinion.
The public perception of these Cardinals is that Arizona is nothing
but a bunch of "upstarts" that can't
possibly hang with the Eagles, my answer to that is....ohhhhhhh
really?
The Eagles caught the Arizona Cardinals at a good time in the last
go around as the Cardinals were forced to fly east on a short week
to play a game on Thanksgiving night, the Cards were also fresh off
a very disappointing 29-37 home loss to the visiting Giants in a
game that saw the Cards out first down the G-Men 27 to 18 and win
the yardage battle 371 to 321 yet lose the game...
...meanwhile the Eagles entered their home game against the visiting
Cardinals with egg on their face and chips on their collective
shoulders after playing the Bungles to an embarressing 13-13 tie and
then the following week getting their doors blown off by the Ravens
at Baltimore by a final score of 7-36.
Those that think these Cardinals don't stand a snow balls chance in
hell of winning this game in straight up fashion might want to
re-think that notion as these two teams have met a total of five
times since 2001...
...and in those games the Arizona Cardinals posted a mark of 2-3
straight up and 3-2 ATS including a 27-21 Cardinal win the last time
Philly visited which was back on Christmas Eve of 2005...and those
Cardinal teams were flat out TERRIBLE.
Obviously the odds maker believes that "Joe Public" still
sees Arizona as a fraud and in turn views the Donovan McNabb led
Eagles as a superior team...we'll see when the smoke clears.
KEY STAT:
A peek into the ole history book reveals this little nugget...
Teams that knock off the defending Super Bowl Champs in the
playoffs have gone on to post a perfect mark of 0-10 straight
up and 1-9 ATS in their next same season playoff game.
PITTSBURGH -6
over Baltimore
Sunday 01/18/09 6:30 pm est
5*****BEST BET
The line on this contest opened up with the home town Steelers
installed as 4.5 to 5.0 point favorites depending on where you
looked and has since moved to Pittsburgh -5.5 to -6.0...
...personally I snatched up the -5.5 (at 5 Dimes sports book) as I
really wouldn't be surprised if this line moves to Pittsburgh -7
along the way before falling backwards to -6 or -6.5 by game time.
Meanwhile, the O/U total opened up at 33 to 33.5 once again
depending on where you looked and has since risen to 34 at virtually
all locations, which makes sense as the Steelers offense appears to
be back on track as evidenced by having now scored 31 and 35 points
on their own in their last two outings...
Oddly enough 62% of all wagers placed at
Sportsinsights have been on the Ravens but the point spread attached
on the game is moving in the other direction...things that make you
go hmmmmmm.
Obviously the betting public will back the Baltimore Ravens in this
contest as the media has done a very good job of hyping them up to
date, but in truth Pittsburgh has literally OWNED the Ravens when
they have visited Pittsburgh as evidenced by the Steelers winning 7
of the last 8 games played in Steel Town and overall (home and away)
have defeated the Ravens in 3 of the last 4 get togethers...
...public bettors tend to be chowder heads with regard to being VERY
superficial, on the surface they see that Baltimore has now won two
straight playoff games, they hear from the media "talking
heads" that Raven QB Joe Flacco is the greatest thing since
sliced bread...
...they hear that the Raven defense is just as good as the one
Pittsburgh fields, and last but not least they have been told that
Pittsburgh was "lucky" to beat Baltimore twice this season
with those two prior meetings decided by a grand total of 7
points...
...sooooo, with all of the above in mind the Joe Public bettor says
to him self, "Self, why not take all of those juicy points with
Baltimore"?
The odds maker is not a stupid man, he knows that Pittsburgh and
Baltimore are two divisional rivals whom know each other well, he
also knows that the last two meetings were decided by a total of 7
points...and yet he opens the Steelers up as a prohibitive 5 point
favorite!
What does the odds maker know that WE should know?
For starters how about the fact that the Baltimore Ravens will be
playing for an 18th straight week without the benefit of having had
a bye week?
Its true, keep in mind that the Ravens were originally scheduled to
play at Houston during the second week of the regular season (Sept
14th) but due to damage to Houston's Reliant Stadium from Hurricane
Ike the game was postponed and instead the Ravens had a bye week...
....which means that since the Ravens did not earn the #1 or #2 seed
in the AFC this year they will be playing for what has to be a
record 18th straight week without the benefit of having had a week
of rest.
In addition to that, the Ravens are playing on the road AGAIN
for the 3rd straight week after traveling to Miami and then to
Tennessess last week and overall the Ravens are playing on the road AGAIN
for the 4th time in a 5 week span...can you say "Road
Weary" or how bout just plain WEARY
period?
Still not convinced yet?
Take a look at the statistics from Baltimore's first game against
Tenny which took place back on October 5th and was won by the
Tennessee Titans 13-10...
...in that game the Ravens had more total yards 285 to 210, had more
first downs 22 to 14 and won the TOP (time of possession) battle by
a staggering 34:28 to 25:32 margin, in that game the Ravens
controled the line of scrimmage by out rushing the Titans 132 to 47
yards.
I went against the Ravens in their playoff re-match against the
Titans because of the fatigue factor of which I have been pointing
out, I lost that bet as the Ravens pulled out a miraculous 13-10
straight up win, thanks in part to a non call delay of game
penalty...
...however, a peek at the ole stat sheet from the Ravens game
against the Titans shows that stat-wise we were on the correct side
as Tenny had more first downs 21 to 9, out yarded the Ravens 391 to
211, and won the TOP by a whopping 34:07 to 25:53 difference...yet
the Titans lost the game.
Baltimore was very very lucky to defeat the Titans last week and the
statistics from that contest bears this out, the most telling stat
from that game which shows just how WEARY these Ravens
are is the total rushing yards from each team as this is the time
tested and true barometer of which team controlled the line of
scrimmage and in that regard the Titans out rushed the Ravens 116 to
50 yards.
Baltimore will bring a highly heralded (and rightly so) defense
to Pittsburgh that is led by aging LB Ray Lewis, the Raven defense
can best be thought of or characterized as being a 4-3 base look
that uses lots of movement as a means of confusing opposing offenses
with various wrinkles and blitz packages.
What Baltimore likes to do is to have their front four engage and
lockup the opposing teams blockers and in doing so NOT allow those
same blockers to reach Baltimore's defensive secondary...
...this method allows the Raven linebackers to roam free and make
tackles which in turn allows the Raven defensive secondary to
concentrate on covering down field receivers.
To combat this the Steeler offensive line must effectively reach the
second level of Baltimore's defense utilizing well executed pulls
and trap blocks which in turn should create holes for the running
game...
...however, the Ravens have not allowed a single RB to rush for over
100 yards all season long and they own the NFL's 3rd best rushing
defense in terms of rushing yards allowed, so opening holes won't be
an easy task nor will it be an easy task to get some helmets on the
Raven linebacking corps as a means of extending runs when and if
holes are opened.
As mentioned above, the Raven defense has not allowed a SINGLE
running back to rush for over 100 yds in a game, however, that
doesn't mean that the Raven defense hasn't been beaten this season
in the rushing game...
...the Ravens were on the road for a 3rd straight week (just
as they are this week) when they traveled to the Meadowlands
of New Jersey to face the Giants back on Nov 16th, in that game the
Giants used their "Earth, Wind, and Fire" backfield to
shred the Ravens for a combined 207 rushing yards on 33 attempts
which is a 6.27 yards per pop average in a 10-30 Raven loss...
...in the final week of the regular season Jacksonville visited
Baltimore and rushed for 118 yards on 27 totes for a per pop average
of 4.37 but had 4 turnovers which in effect gave the game to the
Ravens.
...just last week Titan RB Chris Johnson rushed for 72 yards on 11
totes for a 6.55 per pop average before leaving the game with an
injury and as a whole the Titans rushed for 116 combined yards on 28
attempts for a per tote average of 4.14 yds but lost due to turning
the ball over 3 times in the red zone.
For the season the Ravens defense has only allowed 81.56 yards per
game, however, they allowed 116 yards last week to Tenny and 118
yards to the Jags two weeks prior, the Dolphins only rushed for 52
yards against Baltimore but that was because Miami turned the ball
over 5 times and consequently was playing catch up on the scoreboard
the entire game.
Obviously this is a tired and worn down Baltimore Raven defense that
is playing for an 18th straight week without a bye and is on the
road AGAIN for the 4th time in a 5 week span...
...and that's not good news for Raven faithful as Pittsburgh is well
rested having had two weeks off sprinkled in since Baltimore had
their week of rest wayyyyy back in September.
This week the Raven defense will have to contend with
"Fast" Willie Parker who is fresh and healthy, this is the
same "Fast" Willie Parker that was clocked at 4.23 in the
40 yard dash...
...and ohhhhhh by the way, Willie Parker's time in the 40 yard dash
was .01 second faster than Titan RB Chris Johnson.
Parker was banged up for most of the early part of this season with
knee and shoulder injuries, however, Parker appeared at full
strength for the first time since the start of the season last week
against the Bolts in a game that saw Parker rush for 146 yards on 27
totes for a 5.41 per pop average.
As stated above, I am so glad that the media "talking
heads" keep hyping up Raven rookie QB Joe Flacco, the reason
centers around the fact that the combination of the hype surrounding
the Raven defense along with the Flacco hype has kept the point
spread under a full TD.
Flacco is being heralded as the best thing since sliced bread and
has been compared to Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger...
...ahhhhhh excuse me but the only comparison between these QB's that
should be made up to this point in time is that they both come from
small colleges and both have a cannon for an arm...
...Roethlisberger as a rookie posted a record of 13-0 in leading his
team to a playoff first round bye and won his divisional playoff
game at home over the visiting Jets before losing in the AFC
Championship game against the eventual Super Bowl winning New
England Patriots.
...Roethlisberger in his rookie season threw for 2,621 yards with a
TD to INT ratio of 17 to 11 and had a 98% passer rating, in his
second year as a starter Roethlisberger became the youngest QB to
ever win a Super Bowl and collected his first 50 NFL wins faster
than any QB in history.
Meanwhile, Flacco has a TD to INT ratio of 14 to 12 this year, has a
QB rating of 80.3 and has been all but invisible and a non factor in
the playoffs thus far with regard to completing 9 of 23 tosses for
135 yds against Miami and completing 11 of 22 tosses for 161 yds
against Tennessee...
...the point that I am trying to make is that Flacco is getting ALOT
of hype leading up to this contest at Pittsburgh, I have already
layed out the reasons as to why I think the Raven defense is tired
and can be run on...
...and if Pittsburgh can run on Baltimore like I think they will,
stay relatively turnover free as they usually do, and put points on
the scoreboard, the Ravens will then be forced to give young Flacco
a much larger role and there-in lies the question...
..."Would you rather have a proven commodity like
Roethlisberger directing your offense in playoff crunch time or
would you rather have an unproven and over hyped rookie?
Those that don't think that Raven LB Ray Lewis has missed a step and
is slowing down might want to take a look at the video I am
including as it shows just how bad Willie Parker made him look on
several occasions when these two teams last met...
...now that Parker is fully healthy and the Raven defense is tired,
Lewis will in all liklihood look worse this week.
http://www.viddler.com/explore/PostG...oes/videos/42/
In the big picture Baltimore is at a severe disadvantage entering
this contest against a well rested and healthy Steeler team that as
already mentioned has defeated Baltimore 7 of the last 8 times they
have visited Steel Town...
...these two teams literally HATE one another, with
that in mind I fully expect Pittsburgh to pour it on and not let up,
this game might be close in the opening quarter but by half time
Pittsburgh will start to pull away and by the games end the Steelers
should win this game easily by 14 or more points.
Pittsburgh-Baltimore.....OVER
34
Sunday 01/18/09 6:30 pm est
3***Play Selection
I pointed out in my above analysis, in which I made a case for
Pittsburgh to cover the spot against Baltimore, that the Ravens
would be playing their 18th straight game this week
when they travel to the Steel City and not only will be on the road
for a third straight week but will actually be playing their 4th
road game in a 5 week span as well...
...meaning that it only stands to reason that Baltimore would be a
tired and "Road weary" team entering this
contest against Pittsburgh, the fatigue factor started to show last
week when Titan RB Chris Johnson gashed the Raven defense repeatedly
for 72 yards on 11 totes for a 6.55 per pop average before leaving
the game with an injury and as a team the Titans rushed for 116
yards...
The point of the matter is that Baltimore's defense is a tired unit,
and tired units give up points, the Ravens were very very lucky last
week with regard to the Titans turning over the ball three times in
the red zone...
...against the Titans the Ravens defense gave up 391 yards total and
as a team Baltimore was out-yarded 391 to 211, one of the tell-tell
signs that the Raven defense will be a tired unit when they visit
Pittsburgh is best evidenced by the fact that the Raven defense was
on the field for 34:07 minutes against Tennessee and was on the
field for 33:26 minutes the week prior against Miami...
...on the flip side of thing the Steelers as a whole are well rested
and especially so on defense as Pittsburgh's offense had the ball
for a staggering 36:30 minutes against San Diego including all but
17 seconds of the 3rd quarter, meaning that the Steeler defense got
even that much more rest watching from the sidelines...
...there is no tomorrow for either team in this contest, meaning
that each team will have to match the other on the scoreboard,
Pittsburgh figures to score early and often against the tired and
"Road weary" Ravens as a means of forcing
Baltimore to use young Flacco in the passing game more than
Baltimore would like to...
....Flacco is a very good young QB and he will make some plays and
score some points, however, I'm not sure he's quite ready for such a
grand stage as the AFC Championship game.
Flacco is being compared to Ben Roelisberger and there are some
similarities, the most striking of course is that each QB led their
team to an AFC Championship game in their rookie season...
...as good as Roelisberger played in his rookie season he looked
THAT bad in the AFC Championship game against New England in a 41-27
loss that saw Roelisberger toss three interceptions and as a team
Pittsburgh turned the ball over five times.
Odds makers aren't in the business of giving money away, with that
being said they all but told us (as handicappers) which side in this
contest they felt held most of the cards when they opened the line
up with Pittsburgh installed as a prohibitive 5 point favorite.
Alot of folks in the media are making something of the fact that
this is the 3rd time these two teams will have faced each other this
season and are saying that it would be awfully hard for one team to
defeat another team three times in the same season and I agree with
that to a point...
...but on the flip side of things, doesn't it make sense that each
time a team plays another team its a whole new game
and with that in mind and all things being equal with regard to
injuries and such, if one team couldn't defeat another team in the
first two encounters why would they suddenly have a better chance in
the 3rd go around?
In historical terms there have been 54 instances in which two teams
have met three times in a single season, in 36 of the 54 meetings
the two teams split the regular season meetings, however, in 18 of
the 54 meetings one team won BOTH regular season meeting and entered
the third affair with a mark of 2-0...
...the team that won BOTH meetings won the third match
up 11 of the 18 times it has happened for a winning rate of 61.11%.
However, this same situation came up just last year when the
Cowpokes of Dallas defeated the G-Men New York twice during the
regular season by finals of 45-35 and 31-20 but lost to New York
21-17 in the playoffs enroute to the Giants winning the Super Bowl.
Strangely enough, in recent history Pittsburgh is 2-0 in third same
season meetings when they had won the first two against the same
team and then faced them in the playoffs and in both cases the team
the Steelers beat a 3rd time in the same season was the Cleveland
Browns who in turn spun off the Raven franchaise.
Betting on the OVER when Baltimore has visited
Pittsburgh in the past has been a winning proposition the past four
straight times and historically the OVER has
payed off in 7 of the last 8 times these teams have played in the
Steel City.
KEY STAT:
A deeper look-see into the ole history book shows that in the AFC
and NFC Championship round, the games with posted O/U totals of 40
or less points have gone OVER THE TOTAL to the tune of
a 18-8-2 mark which is a
winning rate of 69.23%.
Our
extraordinary record is based on our outstanding "Late
Week" selections which have averaged a 57.88%
winning rate over the past 12 years and that also includes our NFL
"Best Bets"
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over the same time period!!
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reports as well as any "Line Movements"
that have taken place.
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